January 15, 2019

Looking Back at Bitcoin Price Predictions from 2018

how accurate were 2018 bitcoin price predictions

Bitcoin started off 2018 around $14,000 after having reached a peak of above $19,000 in mid-December 2017. The peak price for 2018 was around $17000 on January 6 but from that point onwards everything was downhill, which saw bitcoin ending the year around $3800. Many people (“experts” included) made bitcoin price predictions for the end of 2018 and beyond, let us see just how close their predictions were.

In the rest of this article, we shall look at popular price predictions about bitcoin prices made in 2018 and the major events that affected the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in 2018.

Bitcoin price predictions from 2018, were they on the mark?

Positive Bitcoin Price Predictions from 2018

Coming off the 2018 high, most experts predicted that bitcoin will only go higher, this was supported by the fact that historically (except for 2014) the bitcoin price at the end of the year was higher than that at the beginning of the year or the previous years high.

  • John McAfee initially predicted that bitcoin would be worth $500,000 by 2020 but due to growth changed his prediction to $1 million by 2020.
  • Tom Lee, a wall street crypto bull predicted that bitcoin would be $25000 by the end of 2018 and later revised his prediction to $15,000 but the market went in the opposite direction.
  • Tim Draper, a venture capital billionaire predicted that bitcoin will be worth $250,000 by 2022. He also said that he expected the global economy to shift to cryptocurrency eventually.
  • Danial Daychopan, a FinTech entrepreneur based in London predicted that the bitcoin price may reach £30,000 ($38 492) by the end of 2018 and £50,000 ($64153) the year after.
  • John Pferrer, entrepreneur and investor predicted that bitcoin had the potential to reach $700,00 if it became the modern equivalent of gold. He told a crowd at an investment conference last year that, “Bitcoin is the first viable candidate to replace gold the world has ever seen.”

Negative Bitcoin price Predictions from 2018

On the other end of the spectrum, there were some business and economics experts who thought bitcoin was overvalued, a ponzi scheme, not a currency and had no real use case. Below is a list of people who don’t buy into the bitcoin hype.

  • Joe Davis, the head of the Vanguard Investment Strategy group wrote, “As for bitcoin the currency? I see a decent probability that its price goes to zero.”
  • Bill Gates, the Microsoft billionaire said, “As an asset class, you’re not producing anything and so you shouldn’t expect it to go up. It’s kind of a pure ‘greater fool theory’ type of investment… I agree I would short it if there was an easy way to do it.”
  • Warren Buffett, one of the wealthiest man in the world and the most respected investor has shared his thoughts on bitcoin numerous times in 2018. He thinks bitcoin will ‘come to a bad ending.’ He is quoted saying “If you buy something like bitcoin or some cryptocurrency, you don’t really have anything that has produced anything. You’re just hoping the next guy pays more.”
  • Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard economics professor told CNBC that,  “I think Bitcoin will be worth a tiny fraction of what it is now if we’re headed out 10 years from now… I would see $100 as being a lot more likely than $100,000 ten years from now.” As he sees bitcoin being of little use outside of tax evasion and money laundering.
  • Elvira Nabiullina, Head of the Central Bank of Russia, has said “China doesn’t recognise cryptocurrency as payment and forbids ICOs… Our views are absolutely similar. In our view, it’s a sort of a financial pyramid that may collapse at any moment.”

Major events affecting bitcoin prices in 2018:

  • Decrease in trading volumes for Asia due to hacking of major exchanges and regulations.
  • Facebook, Twitter and Google banned cryptocurrency ads.
  • US regulator the SEC said that trading platforms should register with the agency if they allow trading of digital assets that are considered securities.
  • The ICO Sell off and halt in ICO funding.
  • The fall of Ethereum which was used to create most ICO tokens.
  • BTC ETFs being rejected SEC.
  • Goldman Sachs dropping crypto trading plans.
  • The bitcoin cash hardfork.
  • The price predictions from influential people, both positive and negative may also have an effect.

We are now in 2019 and we have not seen any major price movements yet with bitcoin trading at price ranges between $3500-$4100. Many ‘experts’ are cautious when it comes to making any price predictions. Whilst we as a cryptocurrency platform remain optimistic about the future of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and focus on building the technology that will support cryptocurrency adoption during this crypto winter.